Observed (left) and expected (right) changes of climate-change driven Alpine mass movements in the European Alps between colder (left) and warmer conditions (right). Rising temperatures are the (I) primary cause for the observed increase of rockfall (a) in alpine regions. Above treeline, increased sediment availability and increased intense precipitation (II) lead to increased debris-flow activity, potentially in locations without historical precedence (b). Warmer winters are leading to scarcer snow conditions (III) at low elevations and a transient state of increased snowfall at high elevations. This shift is leading to more avalanches with wet snow (c), fewer and smaller avalanches (d) at low and mid elevations, and increased avalanche activity at high elevations (e). No trends have been detected for rockfall below treeline, and findings for debris flows are highly variable. Expected, but not yet visible in observations, are more rock avalanches (despite a measurable increase of rock temperatures), changing ice avalanche activity (despite higher ice temperatures), and deteriorating protection forests. We note that elements not related to mass movements (e.g., changes in infrastructure and damage potential) are shown to remain constant, though in reality they may evolve faster than the discussed mass movements.
Source: Jacquemart, Weber, Chiarle, Chmiel, Cicoira, Corona, … and Stoffel M. (2024). Detecting the impact of climate change on alpine mass movements in observational records from the European Alps. Earth-Science Reviews. DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104886