Climate Change Impacts on Snow Avalanche Risk in Alpine Regions
Date:
Lieu:
Hörsaal SLF
Organisé par:
SLF
Interventant/intervenante:
Gregor Ortner
Modérateur/modératrice:
Michael Bründl
Langue(s):
English
Type de manifestation:
Exposés et colloques
Public cible:
Everybody interested in this topic
Based on downscaled data from the CH2018 Swiss climate change scenarios, we simulate the depth and structure of future snow covers of 100 future winters for six model chains using the physical model SNOWPACK and derive potential future fracture depths as well as future snow layer temperatures for three return period scenarios for the mid (2060) and the end of the century (2085). This data serves as input for the research version of the avalanche simulation software RAMMS::EXTENDED. The resulting hazard indication maps are combined with a building layer and utilised for a risk assessment using the risk platform CLIMADA. The resulting hazard indication and risk maps illustrate and quantify the potential effects of climate change on avalanche induced risk to buildings. They provide a scenario-based estimate of possible future outcomes. Such an avalanche risk assessment illustrates the potential impacts of climate change on future risk to buildings, thus serving as a foundation for decision making and help to develop effective strategies for climate change adaptation.
Zoomlink:
https://wsl.zoom.us/j/62959116517?pwd=UUxMOERwR1loU0wxb1dmQ2VmVHk0dz09
Meeting-ID: 629 5911 6517